OPINION: South Sudan at A crossroads: New Thinking to Deliver on the Promise of a Peaceful, Democratic End to the Transition.

Youth Representative at RJMEC Mr. Patrick Godi [Photo credit: Lou Nelson]

In September 2024, South Sudan will mark six years since the signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCISS) which aimed to end conflict between the government led by President Salva Kiir and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO) of Dr. Riek Machar. Also, a host of other smaller armed and non-armed political movements signed the accord. It is worthy to mention that several influential and leading political movements, such as the National Salvation Front (NAS) of Gen. Thomas Cirilo abstained from signing the agreement, describing it as flawed and short of addressing the root causes of conflicts in the country.

22 February 2024 will also be another milestone, as it will mark the 4th anniversary of the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGONU) tasked with a principal mandate to implement the provisions in the R-ARCISS.

Transitional governments as a matter of practice, are usually time-bound and with a specific program to address the immediate challenges facing a country in post-conflict situations while preparing a return to the regular political process, which is generally an election, yet in South Sudan, it seems like a way of seeking power sine die.

The transitional unity government committed to an ambitious program encompassing deliverables on Governance, Permanent Ceasefire, and Security Arrangements, Humanitarian Assistance and Reconstruction, Economic and Financial reforms, Transitional Justice, and pursuit of constitutionalism, although progress has been minimal and the transition has been characterized by a lack of political will, insufficient funding, a trust deficit, and a lack of consensus on key questions. All these have compounded the smooth implementation of the peace agreement and now the roadmap which extended the life of the government in August 2022 largely lags behind schedule with only 10 months to the hallmark of the process – a national Election.

Now, without any clarity on whether the elections promised for December 2024 will happen due to seemingly unpreparedness, political disagreement on prerequisites, and time lapses, among other factors, the country is poised for a constitutional crisis that will open a Pandora of questions and events challenging the legitimacy of the government. Yet probably this question will be best answered through another round of an extension. If that happens, this will create the longest transitional governance structure in South Sudan. To put this into perspective, it will supersede the length of time dedicated to the transitional period articulated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 signed between the Sudan government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) which ushered in South Sudan’s independence.

Is an extension the Solution?

Just another extension is not a solution. As seen from history, the perpetual transitional governments in the country have failed to impress citizens and observers alike. There has been growing frustration and disaffection about the current status quo from within and beyond making it untenable.

Overall, South Sudan has known no elected government since gaining independence from the Sudan on 9th July 2011, instead the nation, has been engulfed in successive temporary transitional arrangements. The Transitional Constitution of South Sudan 2011 ushered in independence with a transitional government and a promise for the country to initial a people-driven and centered Permanent Constitution to anchor elections then scheduled for 2015. The 2013 conflict disrupted this democratic journey, and the nascent Republic has since been governed under nominal political agreements, notably the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (2015) and the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (2018).

Where do we go?

Perhaps, borrowing from the rich history, experience, and success of the CPA transition, lies the pathway. An extension to the life of an agreement and, subsequently, the government is never a sustainable solution to achieving the core of the mandate. Moreover, as evidenced in the CPA which had far more contentious provisions including a referendum, general elections, autonomy for the South, and wealth sharing than content of agreements seen in post-independence South Sudan. Courage and political will are the necessary ingredients. Also responsibility and steadfast leadership as showcased by President Salva Kiir during the CPA’s critical moments.

Now is the time to ditch the high political appetite for transitions that have rendered constitutionalism and democratic principles to the back of the pecking order. The sovereignty of the people of South Sudan including their political rights to vote in elections must be respected when it comes to the governance toolkit. Elite based, ethnic and violent means of seeking power which have been amplified as the means to ascend to politics must be banished.

The historical aspirations of the people inspired by Freedom, Equality, Justice and Prosperity – the very core values that mobilized Southern Sudanese from every walk of life during the protracted liberation struggle and decisively during the Referendum in 2011 must be given a chance to prosper.

How to approach the end of the transition

New thinking and strategies are definitely required by the signatories, citizens, and the friends and partners of South Sudan to influence and determine the next steps. Can we harmonize the de jure transitional ambitions of the agreement with the de facto scene?

With December in the horizon, it will take a miracle to achieve the dual objectives of a new Constitution, and Elections given the pattern of political behavior. Nonetheless this assertion does not close the window to deliver on the promise of returning power to the people as scheduled. The problem is the history of falling short of commitments and new timelines has eroded citizen’s trust and confidence in the current political architecture. Also, full operationalization of the Constitutional Making Process Act 2022 within 10 months in time for the vote remains a wish. The legislation outlines mechanisms such as

a) the reconstituted National Constitutional Review Commission;

b) the Constitutional Drafting Committee,

c) the Preparatory Sub-Committee,

d) the National Constitutional Conference; and

e) the Constituent Assembly.

Assuming that all positive factors remain constant, this would significantly move things closer yet short of meeting the deadline.

Therefore, an all-round approach to security arrangements and other critical tasks including judicial reforms, the funding and operations of the reconstituted Political Parties Council, National Elections Commission, and the Judiciary satisfactorily could give a glimpse of hope, adequately complement gains in constitutional making process and contribute to overall readiness as articulated in RJMEC’s 5 year progress report of the agreement.

The political parties should exercise high responsibility and morality in steering the country towards a dignified end of the transition. Consensus on specifically addressing electoral and constitutional issues will be critical yet this will require compromises.

President William Ruto of Kenya taking up mediation of the stalled Rome process, could offer an opportunity of achieving inclusive peace onboarding the Non Signatory opposition groups to contribute towards reimagining and deciding the future of the transition. Whether this would be through a new grand government of national unity or political agreement to fast track tenets of democracy hence increasing conducive environment and conditions that will pave way for free, fair and credible elections will be seen in the coming months.

Focus should be shifted away from the binary choices of an Election or just an extension to allow alternative thinking. It should not be a matter of black or white. Many times the solution could lie in the grey areas. In any case, new thinking and processes should seek to assess the transition, consolidate the gains made, and identify priorities that resonate with citizens to achieve specific priorities. While this policy recommendation is not desirable to many South Sudanese including myself due to transitional fatigue, I believe it shall produce far greater outcomes to maintain the gains of the last several transitions to enable a leap into democracy.

Other political options to contemplate on might be divorcing the Electoral process from the constitutional making process as with each passing day the twin objectives of an Election and a constitution increasingly become mutually incompatible.

The international community particularly the UN, AU, Troika, IGAD, EU, IPF, guarantors and partners should extend their solidarity with the South Sudanese people consolidating peace and stability. A humanitarian crisis should be avoided and urgently needed aid to cater immediate needs of communities sustained. Importantly robust Political and diplomatic engagement reminiscent of the CPA era shored up. Attention on these processes should be strengthened and those failing progress should be challenged.

What do citizens want?

As we edge closer towards these defining transitional processes, whatever the outcome or the way it may go – security, safety, protection of human rights, access to livelihoods, food security and increase in human development, and ultimately legitimacy to rule to be derived from the people are fundamental. Civic and political space should be protected to increase broad active participation. Removal of restrictions on freedoms, and encouraging a flourishing environment where citizens and parties can express their views without any fears of harassment, intimidation, arbitrary arrest and even killing. This will contribute towards strengthening urgently needed accountability, transparency and good governance in the country. Additionally the state must pay attention to possible unanticipated consequences of geopolitics and regional dynamics especially impacts from Sudan’s conflict and its implication on the national security of South Sudan.

However, without a radical shift in political attitudes and behavior especially among the parties, the same rhetoric including implementation concerns, financial considerations will continue yet very little actions on the ground to achieve the vision of the peace agreement.

Patrick Godi is the Youth Representative to the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) – the body overseeing the implementation of South Sudan’s 2018 peace agreement. He is a renowned Activist, Researcher, Policy Analyst and practitioner working in the areas of Youth, Peace and Security (YPS), Governance, and Human Rights with an interest in influencing responsive policymaking in South Sudan and Africa. He can be reached on Email: pato.anyama@gmail.com.